General Questions - FAQ
How is the payout calculated?
The 5% treasury fee is taken from the total pool first, and the remaining reward pool is shared among everyone on the winning side, in proportion to their bet:
- Reward Pool: Total Pool × (1 − Treasury Fee)
- Payout Ratio for HIGHER: Reward Pool ÷ Amount Bet on HIGHER
- Payout Ratio for LOWER: Reward Pool ÷ Amount Bet on LOWER
- Your Payout: Your Bet × Payout Ratio (this includes your original stake back)
Suppose you bet 8 BONE on the LOWER position.
- Total LOWER pool: 60 BONE
- Total HIGHER pool: 90 BONE
- Total pool: 150 BONE
- Treasury fee: 5%
Step 1: Apply the Treasury Fee (5%)
Reward Pool = Total Pool × (1 – 0.05) = 150 × 0.95 = 142.5 BONE
Step 2: Calculate the Payout Ratio
Payout Ratio = Reward Pool ÷ LOWER Pool = 142.5 ÷ 60 = 2.375x
Step 3: Calculate Your Payout
Payout = Your Bet × Payout Ratio = 8 × 2.375 = 19 BONE
Step 4: Calculate Profit
Profit = Payout – Your Bet = 19 – 8 = 11 BONE
What are the fees?
5% of each round’s total pot goes to the treasury 🛠️. The fee supports platform development, resources, and upkeep.
💛 Supporting bridge hack victims — a portion of every treasury fee is contributed to S.O.U. to directly support victims of the Shibarium bridge hack. Every round you play contributes to this cause.
Where does the price come from?
The SHIB/USD price is delivered by Chainlink Data Streams, a decentralized oracle network. Every price used to lock or end a round arrives as a cryptographically signed report that is verified on-chain before it can be used. There is no manual price entry or override — if a valid signed report isn’t available, the round simply cannot be settled and bets become refundable. See How It Works Under the Hood for details.
Is there a time limit before I can collect my winnings?
No, collect your winnings 💰 at any time.
What happens if the round ends in a tie?
If the close price is exactly equal to the locked price, neither side wins — the round goes to the house and the full pot is sent to the treasury. Ties are rare, but they are a defined outcome of the game.
What if everyone bets on the same side?
If a round only has predictions on one side:
- If that side turns out to be correct, everyone gets their full stake back — no fee is taken, because there is no opposing pool to win from.
- If that side is wrong (or the round ties), the pot goes to the treasury.
What happens if a round fails to settle?
Each round must be settled within a short buffer window after it ends. If that doesn’t happen — for example, because the price feed was interrupted or the game was paused — the round is voided and every participant can reclaim their full staked amount through the normal Collect flow. Refunds are always for 100% of your bet.
Can I change or remove my position?
No. Once you confirm a prediction, it is locked in for that round. You can also only enter once per round per wallet.
Is there a minimum bet?
Yes, the minimum bet is 1 BONE per prediction per round.
Why can’t I play from my multisig or smart wallet?
For safety, the Prediction contract only accepts bets from regular wallet addresses (EOAs). Smart-contract wallets — including multisigs and some account-abstraction wallets — cannot enter rounds.
The round’s result changed after the round ended! Why?
Due to blockchain confirmation and data processing, final results may briefly update after the “live” round finishes.